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Política 🗳️

90 mercados ativos · Dados: Polymarket

Mercado precifica Newsom com 25% de chances na disputa pela indicação democrata de 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this marke…

$752.50M vol.
Gavin Newsom
25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Kamala Harris
6%
Jon Ossoff
4%

+40 mais opções

Mercado precifica Warsh com 94% para próximo Fed chair de Trump

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve…

$559.88M vol.
Kevin Warsh
83%
Rick Rieder
7%
Judy Shelton
4%
James Bullard
3%

+2 mais opções

Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Elec…

$355.75M vol.
JD Vance
22%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%

+31 mais opções

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this marke…

$348.68M vol.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
33%
J.D. Vance
28%
Marco Rubio
12%
Ron DeSantis
2%

+30 mais opções

Mercado precifica 97% de chance de Fed manter taxas em março de 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made …

$201.61M vol.
No change
97%
25 bps decrease
2%
25+ bps increase
1%

Mercado aposta em transição na Venezuela: Delcy Rodríguez lidera com 60% até fim de 2026

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of…

$70.96M vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
60%
María Corina Machado
16%
Nicolás Maduro
13%
Edmundo González
3%

+3 mais opções

Next President of Vietnam

Vietnam’s President is selected through internal decisions of the Communist Party of Vietnam and its National Assembly. The Party is holding its 14th National C…

$21.10M vol.
Tô Lâm
86%
Trần Thanh Mẫn
10%
Phan Văn Giang
3%
Trần Cẩm Tú
1%

Next French Presidential Election

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential e…

$9.84M vol.
Jordan Bardella
28%
Édouard Philippe
14%
Marine Le Pen
11%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

+14 mais opções

Mercado prevê sucessão iraniana em aberto: Mohseni-Eje'i lidera com 17% em aposta de $7M

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of th…

$7.23M vol.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i
17%
Position abolished
13%
Alireza Arafi
12%
Mojtaba Khamenei
11%

+12 mais opções

Colombia Presidential Election

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% …

$5.63M vol.
Candidate M
33%
Iván Cepeda Castro
32%
Abelardo de la Espriella
22%
Paloma Valencia
8%

+2 mais opções

Fed decision in April?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made …

$4.23M vol.
No change
86%
25 bps decrease
12%
50+ bps decrease
2%
25+ bps increase
1%

Mercado aponta James Talarico como favorito esmagador na primária democrata do Senado do Texas

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary tak…

$3.32M vol.
James Talarico
85%
Jasmine Crockett
16%

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed c…

$3.28M vol.
Chong Won-oh
78%
Oh Se-hoon
14%
Park Ju-min
4%
Ahn Cheol-soo
2%

+1 mais opções

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Repr…

$2.87M vol.
R Senate, D House
41%
Democrats Sweep
40%
Republicans Sweep
18%
D Senate, R House
2%

+1 mais opções

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the gr…

$2.10M vol.
United Russia (ER)
78%
New People (NL)
16%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
5%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%

Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary tak…

$1.63M vol.
Graham Platner
74%
Janet Mills
26%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in t…

$1.55M vol.
55-60%
81%
<55%
14%
60-65%
5%

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count…

$1.43M vol.
No Next PM in 2026
32%
Angela Rayner
20%
Wes Streeting
11%
Nigel Farage
8%

+9 mais opções

# of seats won by PPLE in 2026 Thailand Legislative Election?

The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45-60 days to elect members of the Thai Hous…

$1.43M vol.
<120
51%
120–134
48%
180+
1%

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and s…

$1.22M vol.
Benjamin Netanyahu
62%
Naftali Bennett
26%
Gadi Eizenkot
5%
Yair Lapid
4%

+4 mais opções

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the gr…

$1.12M vol.
TISZA
66%
Fidesz
34%

Baden-Württemberg Parliamentary Election Winner

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026. This market will resolve t…

$1.08M vol.
CDU
71%
The Greens
28%
AfD
1%

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially selected and a…

$1.04M vol.
Anutin Charnvirakul
98%
Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut
1%

Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greates…

$946.6K vol.
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)
91%
Freedom Movement (GS)
8%

Pacto Histórico domina apostas sobre Senado colombiano com 96% de probabilidade em 2026

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of …

$926.8K vol.
Pacto Histórico (PH)
95%
Centro Democrático (CD)
4%
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
1%

Peru Presidential Election Winner

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Pre…

$893.5K vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
41%
Alfonso López Chau
20%
Keiko Fujimori
13%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
5%

+10 mais opções

Mercado aposta 61% em ausência de encontro Trump-Putin até junho de 2026

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM …

$866.5K vol.
No meeting by June 30
59%
Other EU country
12%
Gulf country
7%
Turkey
4%

+10 mais opções

Fed Decision in June?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made…

$776.1K vol.
No change
60%
25 bps decrease
31%
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps increase
4%

+1 mais opções

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:5…

$669.9K vol.
Paramount
81%
None by June 30, 2027
11%
Netflix
3%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate contro…

$629.1K vol.
Republican Party
57%
Democratic Party
43%
BREAKING
Mercado precifica Newsom com 25% de chances na disputa pela indicação democrata de 202825% 0.0%Mercado precifica Warsh com 94% para próximo Fed chair de Trump83% 0.0%Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição22%Republican Presidential Nominee 202833% 0.0%Mercado precifica 97% de chance de Fed manter taxas em março de 202697%Mercado aposta em transição na Venezuela: Delcy Rodríguez lidera com 60% até fim de 202660% 0.0%Next President of Vietnam86%Next French Presidential Election28%Mercado prevê sucessão iraniana em aberto: Mohseni-Eje'i lidera com 17% em aposta de $7M17%Colombia Presidential Election33% 0.0%Fed decision in April?86% 0.0%Mercado aponta James Talarico como favorito esmagador na primária democrata do Senado do Texas85%Mercado precifica Newsom com 25% de chances na disputa pela indicação democrata de 202825% 0.0%Mercado precifica Warsh com 94% para próximo Fed chair de Trump83% 0.0%Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição22%Republican Presidential Nominee 202833% 0.0%Mercado precifica 97% de chance de Fed manter taxas em março de 202697%Mercado aposta em transição na Venezuela: Delcy Rodríguez lidera com 60% até fim de 202660% 0.0%Next President of Vietnam86%Next French Presidential Election28%Mercado prevê sucessão iraniana em aberto: Mohseni-Eje'i lidera com 17% em aposta de $7M17%Colombia Presidential Election33% 0.0%Fed decision in April?86% 0.0%Mercado aponta James Talarico como favorito esmagador na primária democrata do Senado do Texas85%