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Política 🗳️

90 mercados ativos · Dados: Polymarket

Mercado precifica Newsom com 25% de chances na disputa pela indicação democrata de 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this marke…

$1118.43M vol.
Gavin Newsom
26%
Kamala Harris
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Jon Ossoff
7%

+40 mais opções

Kennedy lidera mercado de indicação republicana 2028 com 33%, enquanto Vance cresce com 28%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this marke…

$597.95M vol.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
33%
J.D. Vance
26%
Marco Rubio
14%
Tucker Carlson
5%

+20 mais opções

Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Elec…

$563.83M vol.
JD Vance
21%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%

+32 mais opções

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of…

$86.60M vol.
Nicolás Maduro
65%
Delcy Rodríguez
22%
María Corina Machado
8%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%

+3 mais opções

Bardella lidera disputa pela presidência francesa com 28% em mercado descentralizado

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential e…

$57.70M vol.
Jordan Bardella
22%
Édouard Philippe
21%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
8%
Marine Le Pen
6%

+29 mais opções

Fujimori lidera disputa presidencial peruana com 43% em mercado descentralizado

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Pre…

$48.33M vol.
Keiko Fujimori
66%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
31%
Rafael López Aliaga
2%

Warsh domina apostas sobre próximo presidente do Fed com 94% de probabilidade

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reser…

$48.00M vol.
Kevin Warsh
100%

Mercado descentralizado precifica Chong Won-oh com 78% de chances na eleição de prefeito de Seul 2026

The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed c…

$33.99M vol.
Chong Won-oh
86%
Oh Se-hoon
12%

Colombia Presidential Election

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% …

$26.90M vol.
Candidate M
33%
Iván Cepeda Castro
27%
Paloma Valencia
20%
Abelardo de la Espriella
19%

Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political part…

$20.50M vol.
DMK
86%
TVK
9%
ADMK
6%

California Governor Election Winner

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the res…

$16.44M vol.
Tom Steyer
43%
Xavier Becerra
34%
Steve Hilton
8%
Matt Mahan
4%

+3 mais opções

Mercado prevê pausa do Fed em junho; 86% apostam em manutenção de taxas

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made…

$16.39M vol.
No change
94%
25 bps decrease
4%
25 bps increase
1%

Dinamarca aposta em continuidade: Frederiksen domina projeções para 2026 com 84% no mercado

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as P…

$7.87M vol.
Mette Frederiksen
94%
Lars Løkke Rasmussen
5%
Troels Lund Poulsen
2%

Iran leader end of 2026?

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026…

$7.15M vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
66%
Reza Pahlavi
10%
No Head of State
3%
Abbas Araghchi
2%

+8 mais opções

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the gr…

$6.77M vol.
United Russia (ER)
66%
New People (NL)
28%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
5%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%

Next leader out of power before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled d…

$6.57M vol.
Orbán - Hungary PM
95%
Starmer - UK PM
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Fede…

$6.46M vol.
3.75%
50%
3.5%
15%
3.25%
13%
4.0%
7%

+8 mais opções

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and s…

$6.24M vol.
Benjamin Netanyahu
41%
Naftali Bennett
36%
Gadi Eizenkot
11%
Avigdor Lieberman
6%

+3 mais opções

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Repr…

$5.95M vol.
Democrats Sweep
47%
R Senate, D House
37%
Republicans Sweep
14%
D Senate, R House
1%

+1 mais opções

Peru 2026: Mercado aponta Sánchez Palomino com 58% para segundo lugar na primeira volta

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives m…

$5.88M vol.
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
95%
Rafael López Aliaga
2%

BJP favorita em mercado descentralizado para Bengala Ocidental com 56% contra AITC

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party th…

$5.44M vol.
BJP
51%
AITC
49%

Mercado aposta 61% em ausência de encontro Trump-Putin até junho de 2026

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM …

$5.34M vol.
No meeting by June 30
90%
China
5%
Other EU country
1%
Other
1%

+3 mais opções

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% …

$5.06M vol.
Iván Cepeda Castro
94%
Abelardo de la Espriella
4%
Paloma Valencia
1%

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count…

$5.02M vol.
No Next PM in 2026
32%
Angela Rayner
20%
Andy Burnham
15%
Wes Streeting
14%

+7 mais opções

Fed Decision in July?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made…

$4.50M vol.
No change
89%
25 bps decrease
7%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps decrease
2%

+1 mais opções

2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner

The 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeonggi Province. This market will …

$3.47M vol.
Choo Mi-ae
89%
Yoo Seung-min
7%
Yoo Seong-min
1%

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes pl…

$3.37M vol.
Pakistan
65%
No Meeting by June 30
31%
Oman
1%
Egypt
1%

+2 mais opções

Next Prime Minister of Slovenia

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by th…

$2.92M vol.
Janez Janša
89%
Jernej Vrtovec
3%
Anže Logar
2%
Robert Golob
2%

Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary tak…

$2.82M vol.
Graham Platner
99%

Berlin State Election Winner

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the pol…

$2.59M vol.
CDU
37%
Linke
20%
Grüne
18%
AfD
17%

+1 mais opções

BREAKING
Mercado precifica Newsom com 25% de chances na disputa pela indicação democrata de 202826%Kennedy lidera mercado de indicação republicana 2028 com 33%, enquanto Vance cresce com 28%33% 0.0%Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição21%Venezuela leader end of 2026?65% 0.0%Bardella lidera disputa pela presidência francesa com 28% em mercado descentralizado22%Fujimori lidera disputa presidencial peruana com 43% em mercado descentralizado66% 0.0%Warsh domina apostas sobre próximo presidente do Fed com 94% de probabilidade100%Mercado descentralizado precifica Chong Won-oh com 78% de chances na eleição de prefeito de Seul 202686% 0.0%Colombia Presidential Election33%Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner86%California Governor Election Winner43%Mercado prevê pausa do Fed em junho; 86% apostam em manutenção de taxas94% 0.0%Mercado precifica Newsom com 25% de chances na disputa pela indicação democrata de 202826%Kennedy lidera mercado de indicação republicana 2028 com 33%, enquanto Vance cresce com 28%33% 0.0%Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição21%Venezuela leader end of 2026?65% 0.0%Bardella lidera disputa pela presidência francesa com 28% em mercado descentralizado22%Fujimori lidera disputa presidencial peruana com 43% em mercado descentralizado66% 0.0%Warsh domina apostas sobre próximo presidente do Fed com 94% de probabilidade100%Mercado descentralizado precifica Chong Won-oh com 78% de chances na eleição de prefeito de Seul 202686% 0.0%Colombia Presidential Election33%Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner86%California Governor Election Winner43%Mercado prevê pausa do Fed em junho; 86% apostam em manutenção de taxas94% 0.0%