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Economia 📈

90 mercados ativos · Dados: Polymarket

Mercado da Polymarket indica quase certeza de zero cortes pelo Fed em 2026, com alto capital em jogo

Mercado da Polymarket indica quase certeza de zero cortes pelo Fed em 2026, com alto capital em jogo

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Eme…

$55.24M vol.
0 (0 bps)
97%
1 (25 bps)
1%
2 (50 bps)
1%
Mercado indica aumento de 25 bps na decisão do Fed em dezembro; implicações para política monetária

Mercado indica aumento de 25 bps na decisão do Fed em dezembro; implicações para política monetária

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made…

$10.19M vol.
25 bps increase
71%
No change
28%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made…

$1.09M vol.
No change
72%
25 bps increase
25%
25 bps decrease
2%
50+ bps increase
1%

+1 mais opções

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made b…

$556.7K vol.
Hike–Pause–Hike
70%
Hike–Pause–Pause
28%
Other
1%

Mercado aponta 70% para alta de 25 bp do Bank of England em novembro

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Pol…

$449.0K vol.
25 bps increase
99%
No change
1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcemen…

$193.0K vol.
No Change
62%
25 bps increase
38%

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meetin…

$176.2K vol.
No change
90%
25 bps decrease
10%
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by th…

$152.0K vol.
3.5–3.9%
52%
3.0–3.4%
28%
4.0-4.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
4%

+5 mais opções

US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) report…

$130.5K vol.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
95%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
3%
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estima…

$115.1K vol.
1-2%
87%
0-1%
7%
2-3%
4%
<0
1%

+1 mais opções

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made b…

$114.0K vol.
Pause-Hike-Pause
65%
Pause-Pause-Pause
14%
Pause-Pause-Hike
10%
Pause-Hike-Hike
10%

+1 mais opções

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics…

$107.4K vol.
>5.0%
66%
4.7-5.0%
17%
4.4-4.7%
9%
4.1-4.4%
2%

+1 mais opções

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute o…

$104.8K vol.
3.50% to 3.99%
62%
4.00% to 4.49%
21%
3.00% to 3.49%
8%
4.50% to 4.99%
6%

+2 mais opções

India Annual Inflation 2026

India Annual Inflation 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics…

$103.7K vol.
4.50%+
96%
3.00% to 3.74%
2%
3.75% to 4.49%
1%
<0.75%
1%
GDP growth in 2026

GDP growth in 2026

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis…

$89.5K vol.
2.0–2.5%
51%
>2.5%
46%
1.5–2.0%
2%
Mercado aposta em crescimento global moderado em 2026, com 18% de chance de expansão de 3,1%

Mercado aposta em crescimento global moderado em 2026, com 18% de chance de expansão de 3,1%

This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in…

$88.8K vol.
3.1%
49%
3.2%
19%
3.0%
11%
3.3%
6%

+4 mais opções

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous…

$86.2K vol.
≤1.9%
59%
2.0-2.4%
41%
Canada Annual Inflation 2026

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Stat…

$80.2K vol.
3.0-3.4%
42%
3.5-3.9%
29%
2.5–2.9%
17%
4.0%+
5%

+3 mais opções

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, ch…

$76.9K vol.
2.0-2.4%
86%
2.5-2.9%
5%
3.0-3.4%
5%
≤1.9%
3%

+1 mais opções

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of …

$75.7K vol.
3.0%+
45%
2.7% to 2.9%
41%
2.4% to 2.6%
9%
2.1% to 2.3%
2%

+2 mais opções

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, rel…

$70.7K vol.
No Change
88%
25 bps increase
11%
25 bps decrease
1%
Fed Decision in March?

Fed Decision in March?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made…

$61.4K vol.
25 bps increase
47%
No change
46%
25 bps decrease
5%
50+ bps increase
2%

+1 mais opções

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as repo…

$58.1K vol.
0.0%–0.8%
30%
0.8%–1.6%
23%
-1.6%– -0.8%
16%
1.6%–2.4%
10%

+6 mais opções

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quar…

$53.6K vol.
0.6–0.7%
38%
0.8–0.9%
34%
0.4–0.5%
17%
1.0%+
4%

+3 mais opções

October Inflation US - Annual

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This …

$45.4K vol.
3.7%
88%
3.8%
4%
4.0%
2%
3.9%
2%

+3 mais opções

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exact…

$43.4K vol.
$403K - $407K
46%
$407K - $411K
40%
<$403K
7%
$411K - $415K
4%

+2 mais opções

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value fa…

$41.4K vol.
<$1.115M
57%
$1.115M - $1.126M
20%
$1.126M - $1.137M
6%
$1.137M - $1.148M
4%

+3 mais opções

PPI YoY - October 2026

PPI YoY - October 2026

This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by …

$39.1K vol.
6.8%+
42%
6.5%
18%
6.7%
16%
6.3%
5%

+6 mais opções

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A read…

$38.7K vol.
54.0 to 54.9
29%
55.0 to 55.9
22%
53.0 to 53.9
18%
52.0 to 52.9
12%

+4 mais opções

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls…

$38.0K vol.
<$445K
59%
$445K - $458K
30%
$484K - $497K
3%
$458K - $471K
2%

+2 mais opções