🇧🇷sábado, 1 de ago. de 2026
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notícias que ainda não são notícia

Destaque
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Política

Mercado Precifica Vance com 41% de Chance na Disputa Republicana de 2028

O mercado de previsão Polymarket está avaliando a candidatura de J.D. Vance à nomeação republicana em 2028 com probabilidade de 41%, enquanto 59% dos traders apostam no fracasso dessa trajetória. Com

1J.D. Vance
44%
$682.53M vol.Leia a análise →

Também em destaque

🇧🇷 Brasil

Lula lidera disputa presidencial de 2026 com 47% em mercado descentralizado

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 64%Flávio Bolsonaro 24%+4

$117.52M vol.

Brasil 🇧🇷

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Impeachment de ministro do STF tem apenas 19% de probabilidade até 2027, mostra mercado preditor

Traders em mercados descentralizados precificam em apenas 19% a chance de qualquer ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal ser permanentemente removido por impeach…

$82.6K vol.
3%
Sim

Mercado precifica Tarcísio com apenas 8% de chance na corrida presidencial de 2026

O mercado preditivo descentralizado Polymarket precifica a probabilidade de Tarcísio de Freitas se qualificar para o segundo turno das eleições presidenciais br…

$80.7K vol.
1%
Sim

Mercado aposta em saída de Moraes do STF antes de 2027; capital real sinaliza ceticismo

Contratos sobre a possível saída de Alexandre de Moraes da presidência do Supremo Tribunal Federal refletem uma probabilidade de apenas 33% até dezembro de 2026…

$30.2K vol.
9%
Sim

Mercado vê apenas 3% de chance de Bolsonaro na segunda volta de 2026

Os mercados preditivos descentralizados estão precificando a probabilidade de Jair Bolsonaro avançar para o segundo turno das eleições presidenciais brasileiras…

$13.3K vol.
1%
Sim

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with…

$150.7K vol.
99%
Sim

Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of …

$4.7K vol.
71%
Sim

Política 🗳️

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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate contro…

$3.59M vol.
Republican Party
56%
Democratic Party
44%

Mercado precifica Newsom com 25% de chances na disputa pela indicação democrata de 2028

O mercado de previsão descentralizado Polymarket avalia em 25% a probabilidade de Gavin Newsom, governador da Califórnia, conquistar a indicação presidencial de…

$1250.01M vol.
Gavin Newsom
19%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15%
Jon Ossoff
14%
Kamala Harris
9%

+22 mais opções

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of…

$94.96M vol.
Nicolás Maduro
80%
Delcy Rodríguez
9%
No Head of State
5%
María Corina Machado
3%

+2 mais opções

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and s…

$30.61M vol.
Gadi Eizenkot
49%
Benjamin Netanyahu
36%
Naftali Bennett
7%
Avigdor Lieberman
4%

Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to…

$370.0K vol.
28%
Sim

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Repr…

$9.12M vol.
Democrats Sweep
45%
R Senate, D House
42%
Republicans Sweep
13%
D Senate, R House
1%

+1 mais opções

Maiores apostas do momento

0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs
$1.75M
63%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2
$1.06M
26%
Mercado de predição fixa invasão dos EUA no Irã em 26%; liquidez limitada revela falta de convicção
$51.85M
0%
LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner
$811.7K
0%
LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
$814.4K
94%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1
$650.5K

Tech 💻

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Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$1.70M vol.
21%
Sim

Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$977.4K vol.
18%
Sim

Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$653.8K vol.
6%
Sim

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$185.6K vol.
5%
Sim

Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$142.0K vol.
18%
Sim

Largest Company end of August?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will b…

$756.7K vol.
NVIDIA
6%
Company A
4%
Company B
4%
Company C
4%

+20 mais opções

Mundo 🌍

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EPL: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a lis…

$2.54M vol.
Arsenal
37%
Manchester City
30%
Aston Villa
2%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will …

$968.3K vol.
66%
Sim

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by March 31, 2027, at 1…

$400.2K vol.
8%
Sim

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

This market refers to the Dota 2 Elimination match between L1ga Team and LGD Gaming in the Games of the Future Group D, initially scheduled for August 1 at 7:00…

$391.2K vol.
0%
L1ga Team

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this mar…

$25.07M vol.
Lamine Yamal
21%

UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)

This market will resolve to "Gilbert Urbina" if Gilbert Urbina is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vlasto Cepo at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. …

$384.4K vol.
100%
Gilbert Urbina

Economia 📈

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Eme…

$45.97M vol.
0 (0 bps)
88%
1 (25 bps)
6%
2 (50 bps)
3%
3 (75 bps)
1%

Mercado precifica apenas 23% de chance de Fed aumentar juros em 2026

Contratos na Polymarket sobre possível aumento de taxa de juros pelo Federal Reserve em 2026 refletem expectativa majoritária de manutenção da atual política mo…

$6.11M vol.
68%
Sim

July Inflation US - Annual

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This mar…

$222.1K vol.
3.4%
40%
3.3%
27%
3.5%
20%
3.2%
5%

+5 mais opções

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of …

$596.8K vol.
61%
Sim

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of …

$345.2K vol.
66%
Sim

Bank of England decision in September?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Po…

$103.0K vol.
No change
87%
25 bps increase
14%

Esportes ⚽

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EPL: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a lis…

$2.54M vol.
Team A
16%
Team B
16%
Team C
16%
Other
16%

+7 mais opções

NBA: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NBA for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at…

$14.92M vol.
Oklahoma City Thunder
20%
San Antonio Spurs
19%
Philadelphia 76ers
13%
New York Knicks
8%

+19 mais opções

LALIGA: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 20…

$1.16M vol.
Barcelona
20%
Team A
20%
Team B
20%
Other
20%

+2 mais opções

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the …

$42.62M vol.
Los Angeles Rams
15%
Buffalo Bills
7%
Baltimore Ravens
6%
Kansas City Chiefs
6%

+28 mais opções

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed tea…

$1.91M vol.
Team A
7%
Team B
7%
Team C
7%
Team D
7%

+16 mais opções

MLB World Series Champion 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 ML…

$37.42M vol.
Los Angeles Dodgers
32%
New York Yankees
11%
Milwaukee Brewers
10%
Atlanta Braves
7%

+18 mais opções

BREAKING
Mercado Precifica Vance com 41% de Chance na Disputa Republicana de 202844%▼ 0.0%Fed Decision in September?58%▼ 0.0%Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição21%▼ 0.0%Fed Decision in October?69%Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs0%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?63%▼ 0.3%Mercado de predição fixa invasão dos EUA no Irã em 26%; liquidez limitada revela falta de convicção26%▲ 0.0%LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner0%▼ 0.6%LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season0%▼ 0.7%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?94%Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?66%▼ 0.2%Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner0%UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)100%▲ 0.7%Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group D0%Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner100%LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner100%▲ 0.4%Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?1%▼ 0.0%Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner100%▲ 0.6%Dota 2: GLYPH vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner100%Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha0%▼ 0.4%Mercado Precifica Vance com 41% de Chance na Disputa Republicana de 202844%▼ 0.0%Fed Decision in September?58%▼ 0.0%Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição21%▼ 0.0%Fed Decision in October?69%Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs0%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?63%▼ 0.3%Mercado de predição fixa invasão dos EUA no Irã em 26%; liquidez limitada revela falta de convicção26%▲ 0.0%LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner0%▼ 0.6%LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season0%▼ 0.7%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?94%Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?66%▼ 0.2%Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner0%UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)100%▲ 0.7%Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group D0%Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner100%LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner100%▲ 0.4%Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?1%▼ 0.0%Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner100%▲ 0.6%Dota 2: GLYPH vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner100%Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha0%▼ 0.4%