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Eleições 2026: quem vai ganhar para presidente, governador e Senado, ao vivoVer probabilidades →
Destaque
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Política

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November

1None
25%
2IA, KS
12%
3IA
11%
4ME
2%
5IA, OH
1%

+4 outras opções

$20.65M vol.Leia a análise →

Também em destaque

🇧🇷 Brasil
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market wil…

17%Sim·$86.3K

Brasil 🇧🇷

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Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate

The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held…

$512.0K vol.
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems
28%
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems
27%
Lula, Netanyahu, Reps
13%
Lula, Eizenkot, Reps
6%

+2 mais opções

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?

In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the F…

$4.5K vol.
28%
Sim
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?

Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the October 25 Brazilian presidential runoff election are annulled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw…

$48.3K vol.
2%
Sim
Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?

Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Finance (Ministro da Fazenda) in the government of the President of…

$2.7K vol.
Geraldo Alckmin
27%
Rafael Fonteles
15%
Aloizio Mercadante
14%
Dario Durigan
13%

+6 mais opções

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027?

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027?

In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the F…

$4.9K vol.
23%
Sim
Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if total sponsor capital committed to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is greater than or equal to $10,…

$1.0K vol.
31%
Sim

Política 🗳️

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Ocasio-Cortez e Ossoff lideram probabilidades do indicativo democrata para 2028, mercado mostra dispersão

Ocasio-Cortez e Ossoff lideram probabilidades do indicativo democrata para 2028, mercado mostra dispersão

Mercado Polymarket indica Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez com 18% e Jon Ossoff com 16% de probabilidade implícita para ser o nome democrata em 2028.

$1302.16M vol.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
16%
Gavin Newsom
16%
Jon Ossoff
15%
Kamala Harris
6%

+18 mais opções

Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição

Mercado de 2028 vê Vance favorito com 22%, enquanto capital de $352M aguarda definição

O mercado preditivo descentralizado da Polymarket para a eleição presidencial americana de 2028 precifica JD Vance com 22% de probabilidade implícita de vitória…

$723.97M vol.
JD Vance
18%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13%
Gavin Newsom
11%
Jon Ossoff
10%

+19 mais opções

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential e…

$162.18M vol.
Marine Le Pen
41%
David Lisnard
19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
12%
Édouard Philippe
10%

+8 mais opções

Mercado Precifica Vance com 41% de Chance na Disputa Republicana de 2028

Mercado Precifica Vance com 41% de Chance na Disputa Republicana de 2028

O mercado de previsão Polymarket está avaliando a candidatura de J.D. Vance à nomeação republicana em 2028 com probabilidade de 41%, enquanto 59% dos traders ap…

$719.93M vol.
J.D. Vance
38%
Marco Rubio
21%
Ron DeSantis
4%
Tucker Carlson
3%

+8 mais opções

Texas Governor Election Winner

Texas Governor Election Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event th…

$1.73M vol.
67%
Greg Abbott (R)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve…

$388.2K vol.
3%
Sim

Maiores apostas do momento

Michigan Senate Election Winner
82%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
$5.60M
Iowa Senate Election Winner
59%
Iowa Senate Election Winner
$1.82M
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
73%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026
$13.62M
Bulgaria Presidential Election
84%
Bulgaria Presidential Election
$3.18M
Florida Governor Election Winner
66%
Florida Governor Election Winner
$1.12M
Worlds 2026: Winner
47%
Worlds 2026: Winner
$8.79M

Tech 💻

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Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?

Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$1.21M vol.
8%
Sim
Will BP be acquired before 2027?

Will BP be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$1.07M vol.
3%
Sim
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?

Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$677.3K vol.
1%
Sim
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$635.0K vol.
2%
Sim
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?

Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11…

$433.2K vol.
5%
Sim
NVIDIA lidera disputa por maior empresa em 2026 com 62% de probabilidade no mercado descentralizado

NVIDIA lidera disputa por maior empresa em 2026 com 62% de probabilidade no mercado descentralizado

O mercado descentralizado de previsões Polymarket indica NVIDIA como favorita para encerrar 2026 como a maior empresa do mundo por capitalização de mercado, com…

$9.44M vol.
NVIDIA
54%
Apple
44%
Alphabet
1%

Mundo 🌍

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Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation…

$449.4K vol.
3%
Sim
Mercados apostam em 19% de chance de variante COVID preocupante até 2026

Mercados apostam em 19% de chance de variante COVID preocupante até 2026

Contratos futuros no Polymarket refletem ceticismo quanto ao surgimento de uma nova variante de preocupação da COVID-19 entre dezembro de 2025 e dezembro de 202…

$247.6K vol.
12%
Sim
Seoul: Terence Atmane vs Coleman Wong

Seoul: Terence Atmane vs Coleman Wong

This market refers to the tennis match between Terence Atmane and Coleman Wong in the Seoul, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This marke…

$228.0K vol.
52%
Terence Atmane
Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Harriet Dart

Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Harriet Dart

This market refers to the tennis match between Lilli Tagger and Harriet Dart in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. Thi…

$142.4K vol.
85%
Lilli Tagger
India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India

India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India

This market refers to the cricket match between New Zealand and India scheduled for November 1 2026 at 2:00 AM ET in India Tour of New Zealand T20s. DLS/DRS, o…

$204.4K vol.
65%
New Zealand
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve…

$388.2K vol.
4%
Sim

Economia 📈

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Mercado indica aumento de 25 bps na decisão do Fed em dezembro; implicações para política monetária

Mercado indica aumento de 25 bps na decisão do Fed em dezembro; implicações para política monetária

Contrato Polymarket aponta 70% de probabilidade implícita para um aumento de 25 pontos-base na reunião do Fed de dezembro.

$10.17M vol.
25 bps increase
71%
No change
28%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
Bitcoin price on November 1?

Bitcoin price on November 1?

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date…

$192.8K vol.
50%
78,000-80,000
Mercado da Polymarket indica quase certeza de zero cortes pelo Fed em 2026, com alto capital em jogo

Mercado da Polymarket indica quase certeza de zero cortes pelo Fed em 2026, com alto capital em jogo

O mercado da Polymarket para "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" atribui 96% de probabilidade implícita ao resultado de 0 cortes em 2026.

$55.21M vol.
0 (0 bps)
97%
1 (25 bps)
1%
2 (50 bps)
1%

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meetin…

$176.2K vol.
No change
90%
25 bps decrease
10%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcemen…

$193.0K vol.
No Change
62%
25 bps increase
38%
What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly …

$32.8K vol.
$830K - $851K
53%
$809K - $830K
23%
$788K - $809K
5%
$851K - $870K
4%

+3 mais opções

Esportes ⚽

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EPL: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a lis…

$25.09M vol.
Arsenal
65%
Manchester City
11%
Liverpool
9%
Brighton
8%

+3 mais opções

Barcelona lidera probabilidades para a Champions 2027 em mercado com alto volume

O mercado Polymarket para campeão da UEFA Champions League 2026-27 atribui 21% a Barcelona, com probabilidades opostas em 14% para Bayern e 13% para PSG e Arsen…

$64.74M vol.
Barcelona
22%
Paris Saint-Germain
16%
Bayern Munich
13%
Arsenal
12%

+12 mais opções

NBA: 2027 Champion

NBA: 2027 Champion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NBA for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at…

$34.58M vol.
San Antonio Spurs
22%
Oklahoma City Thunder
13%
Philadelphia 76ers
11%
Boston Celtics
7%

+17 mais opções

Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF

Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 1, 2026 If Real Racing Club wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". I…

$305.7K vol.
Real Madrid CF
82%
Draw (Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF)
12%
Real Racing Club
8%
MLS Cup Winner 2026

MLS Cup Winner 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per…

$23.73M vol.
Nashville SC
21%
Inter Miami CF
16%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
15%
FC Dallas
6%

+14 mais opções

Worlds 2026 Winning Region

Worlds 2026 Winning Region

This market will resolve according to the region or country of the esports team winning 1st place in the League of Legends 2026 Season World Championship (World…

$1.48M vol.
LCK (South Korea)
74%
LPL (China)
25%
LCS (North America)
1%
BREAKING
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?25%▲ 0.0%Which party will win the House in 2026?95%Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms72%▲ 0.0%Texas Senate Election Winner71%▲ 0.0%Michigan Senate Election Winner82%▲ 0.0%Iowa Senate Election Winner59%▼ 0.0%Which party will win the Senate in 2026?73%▲ 0.0%Bulgaria Presidential Election84%▲ 0.2%Florida Governor Election Winner66%▲ 0.0%Worlds 2026: Winner47%▲ 0.1%Next French Presidential Election19%▲ 0.0%US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?3%▼ 0.1%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 1?0%US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?96%▲ 0.0%Mercado de probabilidades precifica queda do regime iraniano em 2026 com divisão quase perfeita5%▼ 0.0%Mercado precifica em 21% risco de Trump deixar presidência antes de 20273%▼ 0.0%Xi Jinping out before 2027?2%▼ 0.0%Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 1?5%▼ 0.0%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?100%▲ 0.0%Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?2%▼ 0.0%Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?25%▲ 0.0%Which party will win the House in 2026?95%Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms72%▲ 0.0%Texas Senate Election Winner71%▲ 0.0%Michigan Senate Election Winner82%▲ 0.0%Iowa Senate Election Winner59%▼ 0.0%Which party will win the Senate in 2026?73%▲ 0.0%Bulgaria Presidential Election84%▲ 0.2%Florida Governor Election Winner66%▲ 0.0%Worlds 2026: Winner47%▲ 0.1%Next French Presidential Election19%▲ 0.0%US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?3%▼ 0.1%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 1?0%US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?96%▲ 0.0%Mercado de probabilidades precifica queda do regime iraniano em 2026 com divisão quase perfeita5%▼ 0.0%Mercado precifica em 21% risco de Trump deixar presidência antes de 20273%▼ 0.0%Xi Jinping out before 2027?2%▼ 0.0%Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 1?5%▼ 0.0%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?100%▲ 0.0%Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?2%▼ 0.0%