🇧🇷domingo, 1 de nov. de 2026

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Brasil 🇧🇷

44 mercados ativos · Dados: Polymarket

Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate

The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held…

$512.0K vol.
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems
28%
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems
26%
Lula, Netanyahu, Reps
13%
Lula, Eizenkot, Reps
6%

+2 mais opções

Mercado prevê inflação brasileira entre 5% e 5,5% em 2026 com 41% de probabilidade

Mercado prevê inflação brasileira entre 5% e 5,5% em 2026 com 41% de probabilidade

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geogr…

$198.6K vol.
5.00-5.49%
49%
5.50-5.99%
33%
4.50-4.99%
8%
6.00-6.49%
4%

+3 mais opções

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil…

$123.4K vol.
No Change
81%
25 bps decrease
19%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil…

$51.5K vol.
No Change
65%
25 bps decrease
24%
25 bps increase
5%
50+ bps increase
4%

+1 mais opções

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

The second round of the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to …

$48.4K vol.
Ruas 20%+
24%
Ruas <5%
7%
Ruas 10-15%
4%
Ruas 5-10%
3%

+2 mais opções

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of …

$44.0K vol.
-0.3% to -0.1%
42%
<-0.3%
30%
0.0% to 0.2%
21%
0.3% to 0.5%
3%

+2 mais opções

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season. …

$15.8K vol.
Under 5%
27%
40% to 59.99%
25%
20% to 39.99%
20%
5% to 19.99%
19%

+1 mais opções

Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?

Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Finance (Ministro da Fazenda) in the government of the President of…

$2.7K vol.
Geraldo Alckmin
29%
Rafael Fonteles
14%
Dario Durigan
14%
Aloizio Mercadante
12%

+6 mais opções

Next Brazilian Chief of Staff?

Next Brazilian Chief of Staff?

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Chief of Staff of the Presidency (Ministro-Chefe da Casa Civil) in the governme…

$1.7K vol.
Camilo Santana
38%
Fernando Haddad
22%
Geraldo Alckmin
15%
Rui Costa
8%

+2 mais opções

Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?

Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Defense (Ministro da Defesa) in the government of the President of …

$1.2K vol.
Rui Costa
31%
José Múcio
28%
Celso Amorim
25%
Aloizio Mercadante
13%

+1 mais opções

Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs (Ministro das Relações Exteriores) in the governmen…

$1.0K vol.
Mauro Vieira
26%
Aloizio Mercadante
26%
Fernando Haddad
19%
Celso Amorim
13%

+2 mais opções

Bank of Brazil Decision in March?

Bank of Brazil Decision in March?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s …

$800 vol.
No Change
30%
50+ bps increase
23%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps decrease
19%

+1 mais opções

Bank of Brazil Decision in January?

Bank of Brazil Decision in January?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the January 2027 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’…

$608 vol.
No Change
26%
25 bps decrease
22%
50+ bps decrease
19%
25 bps increase
18%

+1 mais opções

Next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?

Next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security (Ministro da Justiça e Segurança Públic…

$496 vol.
Wellington César Lima e Silva
26%
Márcio França
18%
Fernando Haddad
18%
Camilo Santana
17%

+2 mais opções

Mercado aposta em saída de Moraes do STF antes de 2027; capital real sinaliza ceticismo

Mercado aposta em saída de Moraes do STF antes de 2027; capital real sinaliza ceticismo

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation…

$261.1K vol.
6%
Sim
Impeachment de ministro do STF tem apenas 19% de probabilidade até 2027, mostra mercado preditor

Impeachment de ministro do STF tem apenas 19% de probabilidade até 2027, mostra mercado preditor

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a…

$103.5K vol.
6%
Sim
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market wil…

$86.8K vol.
17%
Sim
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?

Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the October 25 Brazilian presidential runoff election are annulled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw…

$48.3K vol.
2%
Sim

Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of …

$14.0K vol.
93%
Sim
Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?

Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:5…

$28.7K vol.
2%
Sim
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will…

$8.2K vol.
1%
Sim
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will…

$10.9K vol.
6%
Sim
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will…

$4.3K vol.
17%
Sim
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2027?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will…

$570 vol.
40%
Sim
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by June 30, 2027?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by June 30, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will…

$742 vol.
18%
Sim
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market cr…

$19.0K vol.
39%
Sim
Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2027?

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2027?

In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the F…

$6.0K vol.
12%
Sim
Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027?

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027?

In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the F…

$4.9K vol.
23%
Sim
Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?

Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?

In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the F…

$4.5K vol.
29%
Sim
Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?

Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is officially granted asylum in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 …

$5.1K vol.
27%
Sim